Detecting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Australia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This research article employs annual time series
data of adolescent fertility rate for Australia from 1960 to 2020 to predict
future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The
study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will
continue to decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years
by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Australia to
continue supporting sexual and reproductive health programs by attending to the
various factors that contribute to unwanted pregnancies among adolescents.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 98-102
UNFPA.
(2012a). Marrying too Young: End Child Marriage. New York, NY: UNFPA.
UNICEF
(2014b). The State of the World’s Children 2015: Reimagine the Future:
Innovation for Every Child, New York
UNICEF
(2014b). Ending Child Marriage: Progress and prospects, New York
Walker, J.
A. (2012). Early marriage in Africa – Trends, harmful effects, and
interventions. African Journal of Reproductive Health 16(2): 231-240.
UNICEF
(2015). Child marriage, Adolescent pregnancy and Family formation in West and
Central Africa, pp1-86.
Alkema L.,
Kantorova V., Menozzi C., Biddlecom A (2013). National, regional, and global
rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning
between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. Lancet,
381(9878):1642–52.
Scientific
and Technical Advisory Group (STAG), The Gender and Rights Advisory Panel
(GRAP). Statement on the promotion, protection and fulfilment of sexual and
reproductive health and rights (2017). Geneva: UNDP/ UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/WORLD
BANK Special Programe of Research, Development and Research Training in Human
Reproduction.
Guttmacher
Institute (2017). Adding It Up: Investing in Contraception and Maternal and
Newborn Health. New York.
United
Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and
Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United
Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
Neal S.,
Matthews Z., Frost M., Fogstad H., Camacho A.V., and Laski L (2012). Childbearing
in adolescents aged 12–15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue.
New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries. Acta
Obstet Gynecol Scand. 91(9):1114–8. https://doi.org/1
0.1111/j.1600-0412.2012.01467.x.
Ochen A.M.,
Chi P.C., and Lawoko S (2019). Predictors of teenage pregnancy among girls aged
13–19 years in Uganda: a community based case-control study. BMC Pregnancy
Childbirth. 19(1):211. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12 884-019-2347-y.
Ayele B.G.,
Gebregzabher T.G., Hailu T.T., and Assefa B.A (2018). Determinants of teenage
pregnancy in Degua Tembien District, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A
community-based case-control study. PLoS One. 13(7):e0200898.
