Detecting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Ecuador Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Ecuador from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Ecuador to scale up awareness campaigns among communities, strictly enforce laws that protect women’s rights, promote girl child education and finance empowerment projects for youths.