International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Detecting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for the European Union Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 258-263

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612049

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Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the European Union from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 females aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in the European Union to focus on improving accessibility and affordability of adolescent health services particularly for immigrants who are socially and economically deprived.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Detecting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for the European Union Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 258-263, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612049

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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