Detection of Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Austria Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This research paper uses annual time series data
of adolescent fertility rate for Austria from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will
continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we
encourage the Austrian government to attend to various problems that contribute
to adolescent pregnancies especially in marginalized communities.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 103-108
UNICEF. (2019).
Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the
UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
Kassa G.
M., Arowojolu A.O., Odukogbe A. A., and Yalew A.W (2018). Prevalence and
determinants of adolescent pregnancy in Africa: A systematic review and
meta-analysis, Reproductive health, 15 (1):15
World
Health Organization (2014). Adolescent pregnancy Factsheet [Internet]. World
Health Organization. Available from: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs364/en/.
Ganchimeg
T., Ota E., Morisaki N., Laopaiboon M., Lumbiganon P., & Zhang (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth
outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multi-country
study. BJOG,121(Suppl 1):40–8
United
Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and
Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United
Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
United
Nations (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable
development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
UN (2020)
sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl
development/development-agenda
UNICEF
(2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
World Health
Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing
for all at all ages.
United
Nations (2016). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable
development.
Kassa G.M.,
Arowojolu A.O., Odukogbe A.A.,and Yalew A.W (2018). Prevalence and determinants
of adolescent pregnancy in Africa: A systematic review and Meta-analysis.
Reprod. Health 2018, 15, 195.
Pradhan R.,
Wynter K., and Fisher J (2018). Factors Associated with Pregnancy among Married
Adolescents in Nepal: Secondary Analysis of the National Demographic and Health
Surveys from 2001 to 2011. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 229.
Mehra D.,
Sarkar A., Sreenath P., Behera J.,and Mehra S (2018). Effectiveness of a
community based intervention to delay early marriage, early pregnancy and
improve school retention among adolescents in India. BMC Public Health 2018,
18, 732.
Sama C.B.,
Ngasa S.N., Dzeke B.S.,and Choukem S.P (2017). Prevalence, predictors and
adverse outcomes of adolescent pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: A protocol of a
systematic review. Syst. Rev. 2017, 6, 247.
Islam M.M.,
Islam M.K., and Hasan MS (2017). Adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh: Trends and
determinants. PLoSOne. 12(11):1–14.
