Detection of Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Cuba Using the Artificial Neural Network Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on adolescent fertility rate for Cuba from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable. The neural network model projections revealed that adolescent fertility will hover around 50 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Cuban government to increase awareness campaigns among communities, create adolescent friendly healthcare facilities, fund youth empowerment programs and strictly enforce laws to protect women’s rights. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 202-205

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612038

References

  1. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., and Morisaki N (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multi country study. BJOG. 121 Suppl 1:40-8. 10.1111/1471-0528.12630
  2. UNICEF (2021). Early childbearing.https://data.unicef.org/topic/childhealth/adolescent-health/
  3. World Health Organization (2014). Adolescent pregnancy fact sheet. (2014).https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/112320/WHO_RHR_14.08_eng.pdf.
  4. World Health Organization (2020). Adolescent pregnancy.https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/adolescent-pregnancy.
  5. Bain LE., Muftugil-Yalcin S., Amoakoh-Coleman M., Zweekhorst MB., Becquet R., and de Cock Buning T (2020). Decision making preferences and risk factors regarding early adolescent pregnancy in Ghana: stakeholders' and adolescents' perspectives from a vignette-based qualitative study. Reprod Health. 17:141. 10.1186/s12978-020-00992-x
  6. World Health Organization. (2016). Global Health Estimates 2015: Deaths by Cause, Age, Sex, by Country and by Region, 2000-2015. Geneva: World Health Organization.
  7. Moyano N., Granados R., Durán C.A.,and Galarza C (2021). Self-Esteem, Attitudes toward Love, and Sexual Assertiveness among Pregnant Adolescents. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 1270. https:// doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18031270
  8. EdwardA., Jung Y., EttyangG., Chhorvann C., Risko C., and Ghee AE (2022) A comparative study of adult and adolescent maternal care continuum following community-oriented interventions in Cambodia, Guatemala, Kenya, and Zambia. PLoS ONE 17(1): e0261161.https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261161
  9. Abebe E., Seid A., Gedefaw G., Haile Z.T., and Ice G (2019). Association between antenatal care follow-up and institutional delivery service utilization: analysis of 2016 Ethiopia demographic and health survey. BMC public health. 2019; 19(1):1472. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7854-2 PMID: 31699062
  10. Kyei-Nimakoh M., Carolan-Olah M., and McCann T.V (2017). Access barriers to obstetric care at health facilities in sub-Saharan Africa-a systematic review. Systematic reviews. 6(1):110. https://doi.org/10.1186/ s13643-017-0503-x PMID: 28587676.