Early Detection of Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Burkina Faso Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Burkina Faso from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Burkina Faso to adopt an aggressive approach when addressing the problem of adolescent pregnancies which includes scaling up educational campaigns, creating adolescent friendly clinics, strictly enforce laws that prevent child marriages and solving all socio cultural, demographic and economic issues that lead to unwanted pregnancies among adolescents.