Early Detection of Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for the Central African Republic Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This research uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Central African Republic from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in the Central African Republic to channel more resources towards educating communities, promote girl child education, strictly enforce laws to protect sexual and reproductive rights for women and ensuring the availability of birth control methods in every region of the country especially in the rural areas where access to SRH services is a challenge.