International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Colombia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 183-188

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612034

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Colombia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, the Colombian government should aim to substantially reduce adolescent births by addressing major drivers of adolescent pregnancies such as socio-cultural, economic and demographic factors. 

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Estimating Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Colombia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 183-188, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612034

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. Darroch J.E., Woog V., Bankole A., and Ashford LS (2019). Adding It Up: Costs and Benefits of Meeting the Contraceptive Needs of Adolescents. NewYork: Guttmacher Institute; 2016. https://www.guttmacher. Org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/adding-it-up-adolescents report.pdf.
  2. WHO (2018). Family planning_ Contraception WHO.
  3. Joyce C.B., Martinez G.M and Division of vital statistics (2017). National Health Statistics Reports, Number 104.
  4. Cau B.M (2015). Community influences on contraceptive use in Mozambique. Health Place. 31:10–6.
  5. Bearinger L.H., Sieving R.E., Ferguson J., and Sharma V (2007). Global perspectives on the sexual and reproductive health of adolescents: patterns, prevention, and potential. Lancet. 369(9568):1220–31
  6. Pettifor A.E., Rees H.V., Kleinschmidt I., Steffenson A.E., MacPhail C., Hlongwa Madikizela L (2005). Young people’s sexual health in South Africa: HIV prevalence and sexual behaviors from a nationally representative household survey. Aids. 19(14):1525–34
  7. Joesephine P., and Premraj, C. (2016) Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health. Global Journal for Research Analysis ( GJRA ), 5, 167-168
  8. Rachakonda L., Rawate, S. and Shiradkar, S. (2014) Teenage Pregnancy. International Journal of Current Medical and Applied Sciences, 4, 2059-2063.
  9. OMS (2012) Early Marriages, Teenage Pregnancies and Young Women. Report of the Secretariat Sixty-Fifth World Health Assembly. Genève
  10. Nour N.M. (2006) Health Consequences of Child Marriage in Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12, 1644-1649. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1211.060510
  11. Edgardh K. (2007) Sexual Behaviour and Early Coitarche in a National Sample of 17-Year-Old Swedish Boys. Acta Paediatrica, 91, 985-991.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1651-2227.2002.tb02889.x
  12. Bonell C. (2005) The Effect of Dislike of School on Risk of Teenage Pregnancy: Testing of Hypotheses Using Longitudinal Data from a Randomized Trial of Sex Education. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 59, 223-230.  https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2004.023374
  13. Vikat A. (2002) Socio demographic Differences in the Occurrence of Teenage Pregnancies in Finland in 1987-1998: A Follow Up Study. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 56, 659-668. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.56.9.659
  14. Neal S.E., Chandra-Mouli V., and Chou D (2015). Adolescent first births in East Africa: disaggregating characteristics, trends and determinants. Reprod Health. 12(13):13.
  15. Jewkes R., Morrell R., and Christofides N (2009). Empowering teenagers to prevent pregnancy: lessons from South Africa. Cult Health Sex. 11(7):675–88.
  16. Chigona A., and Chetty R (2007). Girls’ education in South Africa: special consideration to teen mothers as learners. J Educ Int Dev. 3(1):1–17.
  17. WHO (2011).WHO Guidelines on Preventing Early Pregnancy and Poor Reproductive Outcomes among Adolescents in Developing Countries. Geneva. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44691/9789241502214_eng.pdf?sequence=1.
  18. World Bank (2020). Adolescent fertility rate women aged 15-19 years.

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.