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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Ethiopia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 252-257

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612048

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Ethiopia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Ethiopia to attend to the various socio-economic, cultural, geographic and political factors that drive high adolescent birth rates in the country.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Estimating Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Ethiopia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 252-257, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612048
Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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