International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating The Future Burden of Adolescent Births for Haiti Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Haiti from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Haiti to scale up awareness campaigns among communities, strictly enforce laws that protect women’s rights, promote girl child education and provide funding for youth projects to improve their labor participation.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 306-310

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612058

Full Paper
Download

References

  1. Kassa G.M., Arowojolu A., Odukogbe A., and Yalew A.W (2018). Prevalence and determinants of adolescent pregnancy in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Reprod Health. 15(1):195. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978018-0640-2.
  2. Kaphagawani N., and Kalipeni E (2017). Sociocultural factors contributing to teenage pregnancy in Zomba district, Malawi. Glob Public Health. 12(6):694– 710. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2016.1229354.
  3. Wado Y.D., Sully E.A., and Mumah J.N (2019). Pregnancy and early motherhood among adolescents in five east African countries: a multi-level analysis of risk and protective factors. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 19(1):59. https://doi.org/1 0.1186/s12884-019-2204-z.
  4. Darroch J.E., Woog V., Bankole A., Ashford L.S., and Points K (2016). Costs and benefits of meeting the contraceptive needs of adolescents: Guttmacher Institute; 2016.
  5. Franklin C., and Corcoran J (2000). Preventing adolescent pregnancy: a review of programs and practices. Soc Work. 45(1):40–52. https://doi.org/10.1093/ sw/45.1.40.
  6. Larsson M., Aneblom G., Odlind V., and Tydén T (2002). Reasons for pregnancy termination, contraceptive habits and contraceptive failure among Swedish women requesting an early pregnancy termination. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 81(1):64–71. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0001-6349.2001.00169.x.
  7. Sedgh G., Ashford L.S., and Hussain R (2016). Unmet need for contraception in developing countries: examining women’s reasons for not using a method. New York: Guttmacher Institute. 2:2015-6.
  8. Samuel Mathewos., and Aleme Mekuria (2017). Teenage Pregnancy and Its Associated Factors among School Adolescents of Arba Minch Town, Southern Ethiopia. Ethiop J Health Sci.2017; 28(3): 287.  doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ejhs.v28i3.6.

Copyright @ 2026-2017 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Developed by Byzero Technologies