International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating The Future Burden of Adolescent Fertility for China Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for China from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will remain below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore Chinese authorities to prioritize adolescent health in marginalized communities where there are challenges in accessing sexual and reproductive health services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 177-182

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612033

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