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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating The Future Burden of Adolescent Fertility for China Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 177-182

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612033

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for China from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will remain below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore Chinese authorities to prioritize adolescent health in marginalized communities where there are challenges in accessing sexual and reproductive health services. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Estimating The Future Burden of Adolescent Fertility for China Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 177-182, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612033

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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