International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating the Future Burden of Adolescent Births for EL Salvador Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 233-238

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612044

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for El Salvador from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in El Salvador to scale up campaigns among communities, promote girl child education, strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights for women and fund empowerment projects for young adults.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Estimating the Future Burden of Adolescent Births for EL Salvador Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 233-238, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612013

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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