Forecasting Adolescent Fertility Rate for Guinea Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Guinea from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Guinea to scale educational campaigns among the communities, continuously promote girl child education, increase funding towards youth empowerment programs and set up adolescent friendly facilities that are well resourced to address adolescent health issues.