International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Afghanistan Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 70-73

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612011

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This research article employs annual time series data on adolescent fertility rate for Afghanistan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable. The neural network model projections revealed that adolescent fertility will hover around 55 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government to improve access to quality and affordable sexual and reproductive health services among adolescents, promote girl child education and protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls. 

Keywords

ANN, Forecasting, adolescent fertility rate


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Afghanistan Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 70-73, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612011

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. UNICEF (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. Starrs A M., Ezeh A C., Barker G., Basu A., Bertrand J T., Blum R., Coll-Seck A M., Grover A., Laski L., Roa M (2018). Accelerate progress—Sexual and reproductive health and rights for all: Report of the Guttmacher–Lancet Commission. Lancet, 391, 2642–2692.
  3. Glasier A., Gulmezoglu A M., Schmid G P., Moreno C G., & Van Look P F (2006). Sexual and reproductive health: A matter of life and death. Lancet, 368, 1595–1607.
  4. Ezzati M., Lopez A D., Rodgers A., Vander Hoorn S., & Murray C.J (2002). Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease. Lancet 2002, 360, 1347–1360
  5. Borghi J., Ensor T., Somanathan A., Lissner C., & Mills A. Mobilizing financial resources for maternal health. Lancet, 368:1457–65.
  6. Jowett M (2000). Safe motherhood interventions in low-income countries: an economic justification and evidence of cost effectiveness. Health Policy, 53:201–28.

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.