International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Afghanistan Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This research article employs annual time series data on adolescent fertility rate for Afghanistan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable. The neural network model projections revealed that adolescent fertility will hover around 55 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government to improve access to quality and affordable sexual and reproductive health services among adolescents, promote girl child education and protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 70-73

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612011

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