Forecasting adolescent Fertility for Antigua and Barbuda Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This study employs annual time series data on adolescent
fertility rate for Antigua and Barbuda from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Antigua and Barbuda to address issues that significantly
contribute to unwanted pregnancies among adolescents and improve access to
quality and affordable SRH services.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 88-92
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