How to Use Empirical Evidence to Address Teenage Pregnancy and Child Births in the Islamic Republic of Iran

This research article employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will hover around 40 births per 1000 women aged 15-19years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Iran to promote girl child education, protect the rights of women and girls, and set up adolescent friendly health facilities that are well resourced to address adolescent health problems.