How to Use Empirical Evidence to Address Teenage Pregnancy and Child Births in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Abstract
This research article employs annual time series
data of adolescent fertility rate for the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1960 to
2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021
to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The
optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.5 respectively
based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent
fertility will hover around 40 births per 1000 women aged 15-19years throughout
the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Iran to
promote girl child education, protect the rights of women and girls, and set up
adolescent friendly health facilities that are well resourced to address
adolescent health problems.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 322-326
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