Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study employs annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Bangladesh from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results
of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline
throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore authorities in
Bangladesh to promptly attend to the socio-cultural, economic and geographic
factors that result in high absolute numbers of unwanted pregnancies among
adolescents.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 114-118