Projecting Adolescent Fertility for Bangladesh Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Bangladesh from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore authorities in Bangladesh to promptly attend to the socio-cultural, economic and geographic factors that result in high absolute numbers of unwanted pregnancies among adolescents.