International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Relying on Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Forecast Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Egypt

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 228-232

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612043

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Egypt from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, Egyptian authorities should set up adolescent friendly health facilities that are accessible and offering affordable comprehensive sexual and reproductive health care services, enforce laws to protect women’s rights and continually promote girl child education.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Relying on Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Forecast Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Egypt” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 228-232, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612043

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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