International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Relying on Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Forecast Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Egypt

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Egypt from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, Egyptian authorities should set up adolescent friendly health facilities that are accessible and offering affordable comprehensive sexual and reproductive health care services, enforce laws to protect women’s rights and continually promote girl child education.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 228-232

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612043

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