Solving the Problem of High Adolescent Fertility in the DRC Using Empirical Evidence from Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the DRC from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in the DRC to allocate more resources towards adolescent health in order to facilitate setting up of adolescent friendly clinics, funding of awareness campaigns and ensuring the availability of medical supplies that are required in the sexual and reproductive health program.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 217-222

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612041

References

  1. Ministère du Plan et Suivi de la Mise en oeuvre de la Révolution de la Modernité (MPSMRM/Congo); Ministère de la Santé Publique (MSP/Congo. ICF International. Enquête Démographique et de Santé en République Démocratique du Congo 2013–2014. Rockville: 2014.
  2. United Nations Development Programme (2016). Human Development Report 2016: Human Development for everyone. http://hdr.undp.org/ en
  3. DR Congo FP 2020. Core Indicator Summary Sheet: 2018-2019 Annual Progress Report. 
  4. World Bank (2020). Adolescent fertility women aged 15-19 years.