International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Albania Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Approach

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 74-78

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612012

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Abstract

This research uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Albania from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will hover around 19 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Albania to maintain adequate funding of SRH services in order to control adolescent pregnancies and associated adverse outcomes. 

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Albania Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Approach” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 74-78, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612012

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