Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Guatemala Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Guatemala from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Guatemala to improve accessibility of sexual and reproductive health services among teenagers, improve girl child education, scale up awareness campaigns among the communities, provide financial support to youth empowerment projects and continually enforce laws to protect women’s rights and end child marriages.