International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Utilizing Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Detect Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility in Fiji

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Fiji from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will hover around 50 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years throughout the out of sample period. throughout the out of sample period. In order to reverse the projected increase in adolescent births, authorities in Fiji are encouraged to increase awareness among communities and set up adolescent friendly clinics that are capacitated to handle various SRH problems encountered by adolescents and young adults.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 264-269

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612050

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