Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for South Africa from 1974 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is
stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double
exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline
over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the South African
government to address all the challenges that affect the quality of maternal
and child healthcare services in the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 470-474