Analysing Under Five Mortality Rate for South Africa Using Double Exponential Smoothing (HOLT)

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for South Africa from 1974 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the South African government to address all the challenges that affect the quality of maternal and child healthcare services in the country.