Analysing Under Five Mortality Rate for South Africa Using Double Exponential Smoothing (HOLT)

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for South Africa from 1974 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the South African government to address all the challenges that affect the quality of maternal and child healthcare services in the country. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 470-474

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607104

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. World Bank (2019). Mortality rate, under 5.
  4. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  5. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  6. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  7. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.
  8. Velaphi S., and Rhoda N (2012). Reducing neonatal deaths in South Africa – are we there yet, and what can be done? S Afr J Child Health, 6, 3:67-71. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471
  9. Dorrington RE., Bradshaw D., Laubscher R., and Nannan N (2016). Rapid Mortality Surveillance Report 2015. Cape Town: South African Medical Research Council. http://www.mrc.ac.za/bod/ RapidMortalitySurveillanceReport2015.pdf