Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Gabon from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. This study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model to forecast future trends of
U5MR in Gabon. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and
0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that
annual U5MR will decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore
the government of Gabon to channel more resources to maternal and child health
(MNCH) program activities to ensure availability of adequate medical supplies
and staff at all levels of healthcare. In addition, there is need to
aggressively implement health related SDGs that will positively impact on
population health such as poverty reduction, infrastructure development, and
sustainable production and consumption.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 246-250