Analysis of Under Five Mortality Rate for Sub-Saharan Africa Using the Holt’s Linear Method

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting U5MR.Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. Forecast results revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Sub-Saharan Africa to allocate more resources to maternal and child health programs to ensure availability of medical supplies and healthcare professionals at all levels of healthcare. There is need to identify and address factors that significantly contribute to mortality among under five children.