Analysis of Under Five Mortality for Antigua and Barbuda Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Antigua and Barbuda from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting U5MR for Antigua and Barbuda. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections suggest that U5MR will hover around 7.0 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, the government should draft child health policies that will keep under five mortality under control. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 90-93

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607017

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  4. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  5. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  6. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.
  7. United Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
  8. World Health Organization (WHO). The World Health Report. Geneva: WHO; 1998.
  9. World Health Organization (2011).WHO Guidelines on Preventing Early Pregnancy and Poor Reproductive Outcomes among Adolescents in Developing Countries. Geneva. 
  10. Gribbi JN., & J.Bremner J (2012). “Achieving a demographic dividend.” Population Bulletin 67 (2). 2012
  11. Canning D & Schultz TP (2012). The economic consequences of reproductive health and family planning. Lancet, 380 (9837):165-71.