Analysis of Under Five Mortality for Benin Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Benin from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The optimal values for the smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and o.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model projections indicate that annual U5MR will continue to drop but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore health authorities in Benin should channel more resources to the maternal and child health program in order to address most of the challenges that contribute to the high absolute numbers of under five deaths in the country. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 121-125

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607024

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. World Bank (2019). Mortality rate, under 5.
  4. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  5. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  6. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  7. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.
  8. Bloom D. E., Kuhn M., and Prettner K (2020). The contribution of female health to economic development. Econ J. 130, 630:1650–77
  9. Kayode GA., Grobbee DE., and Amoakoh-Coleman M (2017). Variation in neonatal mortality and its relation to country characteristics in sub-Saharan Africa: an ecological study. BMJ Glob Health 2017; 2: e000209. doi:10.1136/ bmjgh-2016-000209.