Analysis of Under Five Mortality for Benin Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Benin from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The optimal values for the smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and o.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model projections indicate that annual U5MR will continue to drop but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore health authorities in Benin should channel more resources to the maternal and child health program in order to address most of the challenges that contribute to the high absolute numbers of under five deaths in the country.