Analyzing Under Five Mortality for Algeria Using a Machine Learning Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Algeria from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria of the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The results of the study highlighted that U5MR will hover around 20 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample period. Hence, authorities in Algeria should prioritize maternal and child health programs by ensuring adequate staffing levels and medical supplies in healthcare facilities. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 86-89

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607016

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  4. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  5. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  6. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.
  7. Dockalova B., Lau K., Barclay H., & Marshall A (2016). Sustainable Development Goals and Family Planning 2020. International Planned Parenthood Federation. London.
  8.  The World Bank (2016). Disease control priorities, third edition (volume 2): reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health. In: Disease control priorities, third edition (volume 2): reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health; 2016. p. 95–108. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ books/NBK361907/pdf/Bookshelf_NBK361907.pdf
  9. Lema V M., Mpanga V., & Makanani BS (2002). Socio-demographic characteristics of adolescent post-abortion patients in Blantyre. Malawi East Afr Med J, 79(6):306–10.
  10.  Soderberg H., Andersson C., Janzon L & Sjoberg NO (1997). Continued pregnancy among abortion applications. A study of women having a change of mind. Acta Obstet Gynecol Stand, 76(10):942–7. 
  11.  Felice ME., Feinstein RA., Fisher M M., Kaplan DW., Olmedo L F., & Rome ES (1999). Adolescent pregnancy–current trends and issues: 1998 American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Adolescence, 1998–1999. Pediatrics. 1999; 103(2):516–20.