Assessing the Feasibility of Achieving Substantial Reduction of Under Five Mortality in Cameroon Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Cameroon from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear method is stable for forecasting under five mortality in Cameroon. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline but remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Cameroon to channel more resources to child health programs in order to substantially reduce under five mortality to the desired level by 2030.