Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Cameroon from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear method is stable for
forecasting under five mortality in Cameroon. Optimal values of smoothing
parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline
but remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the
government of Cameroon to channel more resources to child health programs in
order to substantially reduce under five mortality to the desired level by
2030.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 158-162