Assessing the Feasibility of Achieving Substantial Reduction of Under Five Mortality in India By 2030

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for India from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicate that U5MR will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Hence, we implore the Indian government to design child health policies that will reduce U5MR to levels below 25 deaths per 1000 live births and address various challenges existing in the rural areas and other disadvantaged communities across the country.