Assessing the Feasibility of Achieving Substantial Reduction of Under Five Mortality in Papua New Guinea Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for Papua New Guinea from 1960 to 2020 to predict
future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast
evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable
in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model projections indicate
thatU5MR will remain around 40 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out
of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in Papua New
Guinea to channel more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH)
program to ensure availability of medical supplies and health professionals at
every level of healthcare in the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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