Assessing the Feasibility of Achieving Substantial Reduction of under Five Mortality in Zimbabwe By 2030 Using Holt’s Linear Method

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear(double exponential smoothing) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE. The exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Zimbabwean government to allocate more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program to ensure availability of medical supplies and staff at all levels of healthcare and address all the major challenges that significantly contribute to under five mortality.