Estimating Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Austria Using Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Austria from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. The model evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate in Austria. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, the Austrian government is encouraged to craft child health policies that will help maintain under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births.