International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Estimating Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Bolivia Using Holt’s Linear Method

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 7 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 | Pages: 126-130

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 18-08-2022

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607025

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Bolivia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are   0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to drop throughout the out of sample period. Therefore we encourage authorities in Bolivia to channel more resources to maternal and child health (MNCH) programs particularly primary healthcare so as to attend to all the factors that contribute to under five mortality. 
Keywords

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, U5MR


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Estimating Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Bolivia Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, pp 126-130, July 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607025

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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