Estimating Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Bolivia Using Holt’s Linear Method
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for Bolivia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting
under five mortality rate. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β
are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on
minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear model projections revealed that annual U5MR will
continue to drop throughout the out of sample period. Therefore we encourage
authorities in Bolivia to channel more resources to maternal and child health
(MNCH) programs particularly primary healthcare so as to attend to all the
factors that contribute to under five mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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