Estimating Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for the DRC Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for the DRC from 1969 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in the DRC. Holt’s linear method was applied in this study to predict U5MR. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections indicated that annual U5MR will continue to fall but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore the DRC government to address all the challenges faced by under five children especially in the rural areas where socio-demographic factors significantly contribute to mortality among under five children and allocate more resources to child health program activities.