Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for the DRC from 1969 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in the DRC.
Holt’s linear method was applied in this study to predict U5MR. The optimal
values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on
minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections indicated that
annual U5MR will continue to fall but still remain high over the out of sample
period. Therefore, we implore the DRC government to address all the challenges
faced by under five children especially in the rural areas where
socio-demographic factors significantly contribute to mortality among under
five children and allocate more resources to child health program activities.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 214-218