Estimation of Under Five Mortality Rate for Carbo Verde Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Carbo Verde from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting under five mortality. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied in this study. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The study findings revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Carbo Verde to continue providing resources to the maternal and child health programs to ensure adequate medical staff and medical supplies at all levels of the health delivery system.