Estimation of Under Five Mortality Rate for Carbo Verde Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for Carbo Verde from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation
criteria of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting
under five mortality. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied
in this study. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9and 0.5
respectively based on minimum MSE. The study findings revealed that annual U5MR
will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Carbo Verde to continue providing resources to the maternal and
child health programs to ensure adequate medical staff and medical supplies at
all levels of the health delivery system.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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