Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Chile Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Chile from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied in this paper. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to drop throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, the government of Chile is encouraged to craft strategies that will ensure under five mortality remains below 25 deaths per 1000 live births.