Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Chile from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
of the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s linear exponential
smoothing model was applied in this paper. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The model
projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to drop throughout the out
of sample period. Therefore, the government of Chile is encouraged to craft
strategies that will ensure under five mortality remains below 25 deaths per
1000 live births.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 173-177