Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Ethiopia Using Double Exponential Smoothing
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for Ethiopia from 1966 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting future trends
of U5MR in Ethiopia. The Holt’s linear method was applied in this study with
optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively
based on minimum MSE. Forecast results
indicate that annual U5MR will drop over the out of sample period. Therefore,
the Ethiopian government must allocate more resources to the maternal and child
health program and address all the major drivers of mortality among under five
children.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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