Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Guatemala Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Guatemala from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of under-five mortality rate over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore health authorities in Guatemala to address the various challenges that affect the health of under five children especially that of children living in the rural areas and disadvantaged communities across the country.