Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Guyana from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation statistics
indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The Holt’s
linear exponential smoothing model was applied to forecast U5MR in Guyana. The
optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively
based on minimum MSE. The results of the study revealed that annual U5MR will
decline to levels below 25 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample
period. Therefore, we encourage the authorities in Guyana to design child
health policies that will help keep under five mortality under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 269-273