Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Guyana Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Guyana from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation statistics indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied to forecast U5MR in Guyana. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study revealed that annual U5MR will decline to levels below 25 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the authorities in Guyana to design child health policies that will help keep under five mortality under control.