Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Jordan Using a Machine Learning Algorithm

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Jordan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicate that U5MR will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Jordan to design local policies that will help to address all the existing health challenges that contribute significantly to under five mortality.