Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Lebanon Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Lebanon from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied to project U5MR. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to fall throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the health authorities in Lebanon to address all the health challenges that significantly contribute to under five mortality.