Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Lebanon Using Double Exponential Smoothing
Abstract
This study uses
annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Lebanon from
1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030.
Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is
stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was
applied to project U5MR. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of
the study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to fall throughout the out of
sample period. Therefore, we encourage the health authorities in Lebanon to
address all the health challenges that significantly contribute to under five
mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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