Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Mali Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Mali from 1963 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12,1) model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Mali. The ANN model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period but will remain high. Therefore, we encourage the government of Mali to urgently address all the major challenges that hinder the success of the maternal and child health program in order to substantially reduce under five mortality to as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030.