Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Mali Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Mali from 1963 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12,1) model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Mali. The ANN model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period but will remain high. Therefore, we encourage the government of Mali to urgently address all the major challenges that hinder the success of the maternal and child health program in order to substantially reduce under five mortality to as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 357-360

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607076

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  4. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  5. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  6. Mali Demographic Health Survey 2018.
  7. You D., Hug L., Ejdemyr S., Idele P., Hogan D., and Mathers C (2015). Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. Lancet, 386, 10010, 2275–2286.
  8. UNICEF (2015). Maternal and Newborn Health Disparities in Mali, 1-8.