Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Malta Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Malta from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections indicate that annual U5MR will hover around 6 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Hence, we implore the government of Malta to continue supporting maternal and child health program activities in order to keep mortality among under five children under control.