Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study
uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Malta from
1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals
and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear
exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate.
Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively
based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections
indicate that annual U5MR will hover around 6 deaths per 1000 live births
throughout the out of sample period. Hence, we implore the government of Malta
to continue supporting maternal and child health program activities in order to
keep mortality among under five children under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 361-365