Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Samoa Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Samoa from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections suggest thatannualU5MR will hover around 18 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, the government of Samoa should continue providing financial support to the maternal and child health program to ensure availability of adequate medical supplies and healthcare professionals.