Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Sudan Using Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Sudan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear method model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections suggest that annual U5MR will decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, the Sudanese government must allocate more funds to child health programs to ensure availability of medical supplies, equipment and health work force.