Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Sudan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied Holt’s linear method model is stable in forecasting
under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are
0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing
model projections suggest that annual U5MR will decline over the out of sample
period. Therefore, the Sudanese government must allocate more funds to child
health programs to ensure availability of medical supplies, equipment and
health work force.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 492-496