Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality for Brazil Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate for Brazil from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecasting evaluation
statistics indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting under five
mortality rate. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections suggest that U5MR will
hover around 14 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore,
we encourage the authorities in Brazil to attend to the factors that strongly
contribute to under five mortality especially in marginalized groups or
disadvantaged communities in the rural and urban areas.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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