Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality for Brazil Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Brazil from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecasting evaluation statistics indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections suggest that U5MR will hover around 14 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the authorities in Brazil to attend to the factors that strongly contribute to under five mortality especially in marginalized groups or disadvantaged communities in the rural and urban areas.