Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality for Malaysia Using a Machine Learning Technique
Abstract
This study uses
annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Malaysia from
1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030.
Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied models is
stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model
projections revealed that annual U5MR will hover around 8 deaths per 1000 live
births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the
Malaysian government to continue supporting the maternal and child health
program in order to keep under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live
births.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report
2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality
estimation. New York: UNICEF.
United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030
agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
World Bank (2019). Mortality rate, under 5.
UN (2020) sustainable development goals.
https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy
lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
