Forecasting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality for Malaysia Using a Machine Learning Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Malaysia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied models is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections revealed that annual U5MR will hover around 8 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Malaysian government to continue supporting the maternal and child health program in order to keep under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births.