Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Colombia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
statistics of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting U5MR. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied in
this study to predict U5MR in Colombia. The optimal values of smoothing constants
α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The findings of this
study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample
period. Therefore, we encourage the Colombian government to address various
challenges that are faced by under five children who live in disadvantaged
communities across the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 182-186