Forecasting Under Five Mortality Rate for Egypt Using an Artificial Intelligence Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Egypt from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The ANN (12,12, 1) model projections indicated that annual U5MR will remain constant around 20 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Egyptian authorities to allocate more resources to the maternal and child health program and address health system challenges that contribute to mortality among under five children.